The ‘Duke of Data’ Says to Watch the Broadway Corridor on Election Night


Bob Mackin

Saturday’s mayoral election could be won or lost in the Broadway lane, says Andy Yan.

Andy Yan (USF)

Simon Fraser University’s city program director analyzed numbers from the 2018 election and said to watch the crescent-shaped area of ​​Grandview Woodlands and Hastings Sunrise in Kitsilano a collection of high turnouts, committed neighborhoods populated mainly by tenants. Inside is the spine of the crescent, the Broadway Corridor, which is expected to undergo decades of evolution.

Mayor Kennedy Stewart and rival Kim Sim’s three ABC Vancouver party advisers were among seven votes for the controversial Broadway plan in June. Com. Colleen Hardwick was with the four-vote minority opposed to the plan to encourage towers on the Broadway subway route and she vows to scrap the plan if she wins a majority.

The 2018 Kennedy Stewart vote heatmap (Yan/CoV)

“I don’t know if passing the Broadway plan really got the kind of support they were looking for,” Yan said. “In a way, it almost becomes a referendum on how the mayor and council have handled the evolution of growth in the city.”

The Broadway aisle is where Stewart excelled in 2018 and Ken Sim failed. When all the votes were tallied, Stewart came out 957 ahead. Hardwick, the fifth who was part of Sim’s NPA team in 2018, now has her own team, called TEAM for a Livable Vancouver. Four years ago, she also performed well in the region, but could broaden her base of support if there is a backlash to the Broadway plan.

The 2018 Ken Sim Voting Heatmap (Yan/CoV)

Maps provided by Yan showing the popular vote of each polling station in 2018 offer insight into the geographic and demographic differences that could be repeated on Saturday.

The cards do not take advance voting into account. In 2018, 176,450 votes were cast, including 28% in advance and 1% by post. In 2014, voters were allowed to vote anywhere. A Killarney resident can vote in Kitsilano, or vice versa, but Yan said heavy Saturday traffic and the convenience of voting close to home weigh against so-called open voting.

Where was Stewart strong in 2018?

“The areas most affected by the Broadway plan and the development of the current Broadway building [subway] line. This is where he hopes to repeat,” said Yan, sometimes known as the “Duke of Data”.

The Colleen Hardwick 2018 Voting Heatmap (Yan/CoV)

“People are going to decide if they liked this future he laid out for them. The Broadway corridor is ‘Kennedy country’. And, of course, bits of the West End and bits of the Grandview Woodlands.

Where was Sim Fort in 2018?

“It doesn’t resonate in the Downtown Eastside, but it certainly resonates throughout the Olympic Village and Yaletown/Concord Pacific,” Yan said. “And, of course, important votes from the west side, south-west and south-east.”

Where was Hardwick strong in 2018:

“Colleen lives in Kitsilano, so she’s able to raise a certain level above Ken because of her own personality and story,” Yan said. “Now what is interesting is that Grandview Woodlands was not a strong place for the NPA in general. In this next election, how much Grandview Woodlands would draw for Hardwick, the [TEAM] candidate for mayor?

2022 NPA mayoral candidate Fred Harding was with Vancouver 1st in 2018 when he finished sixth and garnered most of his votes in the southeast corner of the city, particularly Sunset, Killarney and Renfrew -Collingwood. His 2022 campaign has focused on Mandarin-speaking voters, who are heading west.

Kirby-Yung, Carr and Boyle voting heatmaps of 2018 (Yan/CoV)

Downvoting, Yan noted that Perennial Voting Leader Adriane Carr of the Greens dominated from Kitsilano to Strathcona. The same goes for Christine Boyle, the de facto leader of OneCity. It excels in the Southeast, around Collingwood, the city’s densest neighborhood. Yan called it “Christine country,” but wonders how she’ll fare in 2022, after aligning herself so closely with Stewart on the Broadway plan.

“Are people happy or unhappy with the kind of decisions that have been made around stations and surrounding neighborhoods?” Han asked. “Is this a sign there could be a blowout for Christine Boyle and Kennedy Stewart?”

The 10th and final council seat won in 2018 went to NPA’s Sarah Kirby-Yung, now with ABC. She had consistent votes throughout the city except for Strathcona and Grandview Forests and pockets around downtown.

The Broadway Corridor: The Key to Power in the October 15 Election, Says Andy Yan (Yan/CoV)

Indeed, a hint of what is to come was made in a solicitation of ABC supporters by campaign manager Kareem Allam. His October 12 email said he had spent $10,000 on a mailing to Yaletown, Coal Harbour, West End and Eastside, “neighbourhoods we couldn’t reach by knocking on the door.” The email said he was also planning a $20,000 digital ad blitz on Facebook, Google and YouTube.

Wildcards? Yan said to keep an eye on the growth of the East Fraserlands – also known as the River District – and the area around the Olympic Village which has become denser since 2018.

“In the Olympic Village there are a lot of parents who are very unhappy, in terms of the lack of school, which is probably going to affect the school board race,” he said.

Some polls indicate that as many as four in 10 voters are undecided. Voters face a staggering array of choices on a nearly arm’s length ballot: 15 candidates vying for mayor, 59 aiming to fill all 10 city council seats, 32 vying for all seven city council seats. administration of the park and 31 in the race for the nine schools. council oversight.

Turnout in 2018 was 39%, down from 43% in 2014 and a far cry from the 2002 high of 50%.

Elections from 2005 to 2011 averaged 33%,

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